The four-week timeline priced in by the market represents a critical threshold for the global economy. Struyven noted that the impact on oil prices is a “convex function” of the disruption’s length. If the conflict is brief—lasting only a few days or a week—the impact on prices will be disproportionately smaller. In a short-term scenario, crude oil can simply be stored on land in Middle Eastern producing countries, delaying deliveries but leaving the cumulative global supply unaffected—a workaround if Iran’s threats of shutting down the Strait stretch come to fruition.
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这一路径的出现，也让产业链参与者迅速嗅到机会。
“2023年11月刚来园区时，我们只租了一间办公室，没想到公司发展太快，现在一层楼都不够用了。园区提供细致周到的服务，让我们专心做新药。”百灵毓秀（珠海）医药有限公司董事长夏文说。